Some Brief Points about Iran

What's this? An update? How surprising! Actually, I've been planning an update for a while, and have a post almost done, but I realized I could write a quick political post about Iran and get back into the swing of updating.

There is evidence that the U.S. may be planning a military strike against Iran. One of the possible pretexts is the resolution based by the Senate declaring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization, making Iran a state sponsor of terrorism. There's no evidence that the Revolutionary Guard has supplied insurgent groups with arms, while there is evidence that external support for these groups has declined. Iraq is occupied by a foreign power, and that the U.S. is the largest donor of military aid, so criticizing Iran for aiding insurgent groups and meddling in Iraqi affairs is quite ridiculous.

The main reason for war is Iran's nuclear weapons program, which is allowed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that both the U.S. and Iran have signed. Although Iran has been fully cooperating with the IAEA, the U.S. has ignored the treaty and is researching new weapons and keeping its old ones. The fact that the main obstacle to getting a nuclear bomb is enrichment to 5% is concerning, but this calls for a new treaty, not economic sanctions or military actions. Iran is well within its rights, and the U.S. has no legitimacy to tell them to stop.

Military action against Iran, although still disastrous, would consist of air strikes rather than invasion, because the U.S. Army is already stretched in occupying Iraq. Iran would therefore not fall into the same violence and chaos that Iraq faces. I think that the worst consequences would actually be in Iraq, where resentment of U.S. occupation would increase even further. Violence would increase, and withdrawal would happen more quickly and chaotically. Violence would also rise in Pakistan, where fundamentalist forces would benefit from anger against the U.S. and its allies. Thankfully, I don't see much benefit for the Bush administration in this action. However, the Bush administration might nonetheless be desperate enough to whip up support for its foreign policy that it would attack Iran. For now, I hope it doesn't come to that.

More posts to follow! And they won't be political, so you don't have to ignore them.