A Problem of Influence

I'm sure you're all aware that late last month, tens of thousands of Buddhist monks in Myanmar, also known as Burma, took to the streets in protest of the repressive military regime. I imagine that you supported their peaceful, pro-democracy cause, and would like to have helped them in some way. The main ways a country can influence another country are diplomacy, economic sanctions, and military intervention. Unfortunately, Western governments have none of these options open in Burma.

Burma's main allies are its prime economic partners, since it has little need for a military alliance. In 2006, its main trading partners were Thailand and China, so China has the most potential influence in Burma. The U.S. and E.U. have no direct influence because they've already imposed economic sanctions, and military interventions is simply out of the question. The Western countries could try and pressure China into trying to influence Burma, but even China's influence on the military junta is limited. Also, China is still nominally communist, so it will not try to pressure another regime to open dialogue with pro-democracy groups. Therefore, we cannot expect our governments to improve the situation.

On an individual level, we can boycott imports or pressure companies to divest (remove their investments) from a country. For instance, when citizens of Western nations helped end apartheid, South Africa has no other possible trading partners and was pressured to open dialogue with Nelson Mandela's political party. Unfortunately, our trade with Burma is insignificant and already restricted by sanctions, so we can't do anything as individuals.

The reasons for our inability to help the Burmese can be generalized to explain why we have trouble solving serious problems around the world. The Sudanese government, for example, can ignore demands made by the U.N. because its main export is oil to Japan and China. China will oppose any Security Council intervention in Darfur to protect its trade with Sudan, as it is also the main exporter to Sudan. From what I know of Japan, it is fairly isolationist and unlikely to give up a supply of oil, but perhaps it could be pressured into reducing its imports from Sudan.

What lessons should we draw from these situations? First, that economic sanctions should be considered very carefully, because many countries like Iran, Iraq, and Sudan have suffered the cost of the sanction and moved their trade elsewhere, and once strict sanctions are imposed, we can either pressure one of the misbehaving country's new trading partners to have a word with it, or we can invade. Second, through open dialogue and trade we can increase our influence in a country while reducing the relative influence of more neutral countries like China, India, and Japan. Finally, as we've seen in Iraq, Somalia, the Balkans, and other countries around the world, military intervention must be seriously examined and must only be used once all other avenues have been exhausted.